GZ Expat, Part II

Chiner withholding information??

Looks as though Chiner is feeling the pressure more and more to be up front with its information regarding the bird flu...

WASHINGTON A Chinese man who died of pneumonia in 2003 and was at first classified as a SARS victim might have died of avian influenza - two years before Beijing reported any human bird flu infections on the mainland to the World Health Organization, Chinese researchers reported.

The case of the death in Beijing raises the possibility that others attributed to SARS may have actually been caused by the deadly H5N1 flu.

But in a confusing development, at least one of the researchers asked Wednesday that the letter reporting the case be withdrawn from publication in The New England Journal of Medicine. Editors of the medical journal said they were trying to find out why.

The letter was available to journalists before its withdrawal, and it describes the case of a 24-year-old man who died of pneumonia and respiratory distress in November 2003

We lived here in 1997 when the first out break of bird flu happened.  Most reports have the flu centered in Hong Kong...but, as everyone knows around here, there are very few chickens raised for food in Hong Kong...most come from the mainland.  The news at that time was dismal.  The only information we gained at that time was through HK media and most of it was centered around a panic type mode. 

So now, China is being requested for all information...

China was criticized by the United Nations health agency for its slow response to a 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS. World health authorities are tracking cases of the H5N1 avian flu strain, which has infected at least 228 people in 10 countries since late 2003, killing 130 of them, the WHO said on June 20.

International health agencies are trying to work more closely with China to detect and prevent infectious diseases faster, particularly in the densely populated southern region. Human H5N1 cases provide opportunity for the virus to mutate into a pandemic form that may kill millions of people.

It seems as though Chiner is a little more forthcoming with its information.  In the past, this was all about face and Chiner being able to deal with its 'internal' issues on its own.  More and more, it seems as though they are beginning to realize that the bird flu issue is not an internal one...but a global one.  Let's hope...

Reminds me of the Soviets slow realization of the disaster created by Chernolbyl and they finally relented to tell the world about the problem.

File this under...DUH

I just thought this a total obvious situation...however, knowing how sheltered most Americans are in there new coverage...maybe it is worth saying and repeating

A number of countries in the throes of serious bird flu outbreaks are underreporting the extent of the problem, generally because they do not have the money, veterinary expertise or health systems to track the disease adequately in animals, international health officials said Wednesday.

"We think countries might be underreporting, but they do not do it deliberately," said Christianne Bruschke, head of the bird flu task force at the World Organization for Animal Health, at the end of a two-day conference on the disease.

She specifically cited African nations as giving inadequate reports, as well as China and Indonesia - two vast countries battling extensive but poorly defined avian influenza problems.

Read the whole thing...

Bird Flu Update

Although predictions may have proven false...

The flocks of migratory birds that winged their way south to Africa last autumn and then back over Europe in recent weeks did not carry the H5N1 bird flu virus or spread it during their annual journey, scientists have concluded, defying health officials' dire predictions.

International health officials had feared that the disease was likely to spread to Africa during the winter migration and return to Europe with a vengeance during the reverse migration this spring. That has not happened - a significant finding for Europe, because it is far easier to monitor a virus that exists domestically on farms but not in nature.

I'm still not convinced the worst is over in this regard.
A colleague (Chinese) at work recently visited the USA for some training courses. This was his first trip to the USA and he travelled with another colleague (also Chinese) whom has travelled to the USA several times. One night they were trying to decide what they would get to eat, so the more seasoned traveller suggested "Why don't we order the chicken wings."

To which, the first timer replied..."No. I am not buying USA chicken...its too risky."

I laughed at this and told the more seasoned traveller, "they haven't even found the bird flu in the USA yet." She replied, "Yes, I know...but, your government could be covering it up."

*sigh*

Who is covering up what???? Just keep that in mind when thinking of 1.5 billion Chinese...and the fact that these two are educated!

*sigh* again.

Incredible Bird Flu Update...

From two completely different worlds...reports on the bird flu. First, from the USA...

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - California officials expect bird flu to arrive on the U.S. West Coast this summer in what could be the first sign in the United States of the deadly virus, which has already swept from Asia across Europe and down to Africa. "The H5N1 virus in birds is expected in the next couple of months in the United States," California Health and Human Services Secretary Kim Belshe told reporters on Thursday at a state bird flu pandemic preparedness meeting . Officials said the virus was likely to be carried into either the east or west coast of the United States by migrating birds starting their journeys south, either from Alaska on the Pacific Flyway, or the Atlantic Flyway on the other side of North American continent.

So, as the USA continues to track and monitor the virus, hoping to get a leg up on avoiding disaster and saving lives...the Palestinian Territories have other ideas...

GAZA CITY (AFP) - Farmers in the Gaza Strip where poultry have been hit by a bird flu outbreak are refusing to cull their chickens before receiving financial compensation. "The farmers are not letting us into their coops. They don't want to kill their chickens and are demanding compensation," Azzam Tbeileh, the deputy Palestinian agriculture minister, told AFP. He warned that the authorities may have to resort to the use of force in the wake of the detection last week of the potentially deadly strain of the H5N1 strain of bird flu.

Undoubtably, its a Jewish plot.

*sigh*

UPDATE  via Instapundit...this document reportedly paints a very gloomy picture of Britain should the flu strike there...

One of its central themes is the possibility that the virus could mutate again after an initial widespread infection, producing further pandemic waves. Those projections include a "reasonable worst-case scenario" in which multiple waves of the virus infect a total of 50 per cent of the population. At worst, the disease would be as powerful as the strain that caused the 1918 global pandemic, killing 2.5 per cent of those infected.

"This combination would give rise to an estimated 709,300 excess deaths in the UK across the whole period of the pandemic, spread across one or more waves," the Cabinet Office paper concludes.

However, that death toll is at the extreme of the scenarios considered by government scientists. The "base case", which experts believe most likely, is for an estimated 53,700 excess deaths from a multi-wave pandemic.

There are definitely some worries here about how this flu could spread and cause widespread destruction.  However, most of these assumptions are made on a very high mortality rate among very poor people around the world.  People without access to proper healthcare and who do not practice any sort of preventative health measures.  Something to keep in mind when thinking about how high the mortality rate is when looking at some of these statistics...

Bird Flu update...

The news on the Bird Flu front has been rather quiet.  The virus has slowly crept across the globe and the media seems completely disinterested now, as it has become apparent to them that milions people are not going to die tomorrow as a result.

We receive updates on the health situation around the world from International SOS.  Below are the updates for SE Asia and East Asia, where the disease continues to infect farmers who work closely with fowl.

Cats with Bird Flu spreading...

As I mentioned before, this story bore watching.  Sure enough...

VIENNA, Austria - Three cats have tested positive for the deadly strain of bird flu in Austria's first reported case of the disease spreading to an animal other than a bird, state authorities said Monday.

The sick cats were among 170 living at an animal shelter where the disease was detected in chickens last month, authorities said.

In Austria, all the cats from the affected shelter have been moved to a location where they will remain under observation. The shelter has been closed, Health Minister Maria Rauch-Kallat told reporters in Vienna.

"We have decided to put all the cats in quarantine," Rauch-Kallat said. "Here they will be observed by veterinarians and experts in the coming days and weeks."

German authorities last month confirmed that a cat on the Baltic Sea island of Ruegen had succumbed to the deadly virus, which it is believed to have caught by eating an infected bird.

That would be consistent with a pattern of disease transmission seen in wild cats in Asia.

Loads of strays living around here...plus people that have domestic cats that let them wander outside all the time.  Makes you wonder how safe those little kitties are.

Cat Flu?

This is just kind of freaky...

Alarm over the spread of bird flu grew on Wednesday after Germany reported a dead cat infected with the virus, while France sought to curb restrictions on its poultry exports.

I can see how this could happen, if your cat is a hunter and is outdoors a bit.  Hunting down critters like birds.  So...then, you have your cat come indoors and he sleeps in your bed...maybe snuggling up on your pillow.  This could be a big story...

Meanwhile, thousands of baby chicks have died suddenly on a farm here in GZ.  The government says they didn't die of H5N1...rather, coccidiosis, a parasitic disease. 

Zhang, a farmer from Chendong Village in Zhongluotan Township in Guangzhou's Baiyun District, purchased 11,000 chicks in late January, but some began dying from the middle of last month.

    "Towards the end of the month, 100 chicks were dying every day," said Zhang, who has been raising chickens for more than 15 years. But he now plans to give up raising chicks for the moment.

Catching up...

Major link dump here.  I've been quite busy getting back into the swing of things with work...as well as catching up on some games on TV (College Bowl games, NFL Playoffs).  I've recently discovered torrent downloads too...and have had a couple hockey games to keep me busy this weekend.

I've been saving a load of stuff to drop on you...so here goes:

• There are polls for everything...this has been the best so far:  How soon after marriage do Japanese brides cut the cheese?  ht:  BoingBoing
• Ever wonder what Tookie Williams did to deserve the death penalty...Andres Gentry did some digging and came up with the evidence and the people who nominated Tookie for the Nobel Prize.  WARNING...graphic!
• Vodkapundit became a papa, just before the new year.  Pictures of the new baby here...and Mama and Papa here.  Congrats!  Also on the baby front...Kelley over at Suburban Blight is expecting...Kate has some advice for her
• Microsoft censors blogger in Chiner...yes, not the government, Microsoft, pulled a well known blogger off MSN Spaces here in Chiner.  Rebecca MacKinnon has been all over it, but it all seemed to start with an interview he did and was reported by ESWN.  Rebecca has updates  here and here  and here with plenty of links to various opinion about the matter.  After nearly a week of coverage by blogs...the main stream media picks up on the story this weekend. 
• Venemous Kate has found the perfect 'kosher' pickle.  Tai-tai would like that one, I think.
• And we thought the FDA was brutal in the USA?  Pub Philosopher has a little bit on how the UK's Food Standards Agency is trying to save everyone from high blood pressure, by maximizing the amount of salt content in any food at 2%.  Problem is, this would mean the end of one of Britain's best cheeses, Stilton, which requires at least 2.5% to produce.
• Global Warming is upon us...Too much rain in Oregon...too much snow in China...and its butt-cold here.  Ban cars...stop all the power plants...we're all gonna die.
• Speaking of rain in Oregon...does Governor Ted own a healthy chunk of State Farm stock or what??  Even with all the rain lately, the water levels in most places are well below the 1996 record numbers. Still, Oregon Gov. Ted Kulongoski is urging people to obtain flood insurance just in case.
• Highly recommend a visit to Michelle's site and download the videos she has of a couple of veterans (one Vietnam, the other Afghanistan) telling Rep's Moran and Murtha they are full of sh*t.  Beautiful stuff here and here.
• A Chinese cultural education...they taste just like chicken.  WARNING...if you are a cat lover...don't click the link.
• Earlier this week, I had this post about Dodge's new Challenger in a bid to take on Ford's Mustang, which has seen some decent success in a revival of the muscle car look.  Well, GM has taken a shot at it with a Camaro...and, well, I think they lose big in this battle.  Advantage...Dodge (and that hurt's, cuz I am a Ford guy).  It is solace to know that Ford has led the way in the Muscle/Pony car revolution.
• I will believe all of this when I see it...the environmental destruction here is so vast, it will take several generations to clean it up.
• Bird Flu fears have subsided here a bit, with no significant news reported in the past couple weeks...but things are a bit different in Turkey, where it seems as though the flu has spread west and way continue.
• Hugh Hewitt interviews a student and friend of the Pope...and the discussion focuses on whether or not Islam could experience a 'reformation' as Christianity did...the Pope's outlook is not good.  Required read...
• Glenn has some posts to color photos of WWI and WWII.  Great stuff.

Will Tamiflu work?

From Austin Bay...this article about the bird flu fight using Tamiflu...

If avian flu starts to spread easily among humans, the preventive drug Tamiflu has been hailed as a possible way to stem the epidemic.

But will it work? A report in the New England Journal of Medicine today points to no. It details the cases of two Vietnamese patients who both died from a form of avian flu that was apparently resistant to Tamiflu, casting some doubt over the potential effectiveness of the drug.

One of the patients, a 13-year-old girl, died even though treatment was begun at the ideal time -- just hours after her symptoms had started.

"The current supply of oseltamivir [Tamiflu] is inadequate to meet the demand that would arise in the event of an avian influenza pandemic. Moreover, personal stockpiling of oseltamivir [Tamiflu] depletes the supply available for patients who could benefit from the drug during the usual human influenza season: A person who is assertive enough to ask for a prescription does not necessarily need the drug more than unassertive people do," wrote Drs. Allan Brett and Abigail Zuger.

OK...I have my supply.  I an assertive person who asked my doctor for a prescription of Tamiflu.  Am I going to start taking it right now?  No...  I have it as a precautionary measure.  If one of us does come down with something, I will see my doctor in the clinic here in Chiner...and she will prescribe me to use it or not.  Chances are, when the sh*t hits the fan here, there won't be any Tamiflu to be had due to the panic that people generally tend to show in any sort of crisis situation (see Harbin disaster). 

Now...if I was living in Portland, Oregon with little or no contact with Asia, I don't think I would be freaking out and buying a load of Tamiflu for the family.  But, I don't live in Portland...I live here in GZ.  I am not only assertive...I am cautious.  I hope I never have to crack open one of the packages.

Bird Flu update...

Cases keep popping up on rural China...

BEIJING (AFP) - More bird flu outbreaks are likely in China over the next few weeks, the World Health Organisation (WHO) warned, a day after a fourth human infection was confirmed in the giant Asian nation.

"We expect more outbreaks to occur in the weeks ahead of us," the WHO's representative for China, Henk Bekedam, told a briefing on Wednesday.

Thirty H5N1 outbreaks have been confirmed across China this year, most of them over the past five or six weeks.

Bekedam's remarks came after China's Health Ministry announced late Tuesday a 10-year-old girl from Guangxi region in the nation's south had contracted the potentially lethal H5N1 virus and was receiving emergency treatment.

Expat daughter had a trip cancelled by the school to this province because of the recent outbreaks in the area.  Good call.